Vol. 8 No. 2 (2026): Edisi Juni
Open Access
Peer Reviewed

Pemodelan Regresi Logistik Biner terhadap Tingkat Keparahan Kecelakaan Lalu Lintas di Kabupaten Lamongan

Authors

Kurnia Indah Wulandari , Siti Alfiatur Rohmaniah , Mohammad Syaiful Pradana

DOI:

10.29303/jm.v8i2.12121

Published:

2026-06-13

Downloads

Abstract

Abstract

Traffic accidents are a transportation safety issue that have significant social and economic impacts. This study aims to analyze the factors influencing traffic accident severity in Lamongan Regency using binary logistic regression. The data used were secondary data on 1,206 traffic accident cases from 2024 obtained from the Lamongan Police. The response variables were classified into two categories: minor accidents and serious accidents. Predictor variables included the number of fatalities, the number of minor injuries, the time of the accident, the type of accident, the cause of the accident, the road status, the road condition, and the road type. The analysis was conducted using binary logistic regression with a stepwise variable selection method based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The results showed that the number of fatalities, the number of minor injuries, the time of the accident, the type of accident, the road status, and the road type significantly influenced traffic accident severity. The resulting model achieved a classification accuracy of 78.11%, enabling a reasonably good classification of accident severity.

Keywords:

binary logistic regression traffic accidents accident severity road safety Classification

References

Agresti, A. (2010). Analysis of ordinal categorical data (2nd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.

Bougna, T., Hundal, G., & Taniform, P. (2022). Quantitative analysis of the social costs of road traffic crashes: A literature review. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 165, 106282. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2021.106282

Harris, J. K. (2021). Primer on binary logistic regression. Family Medicine and Community Health, 9(Suppl 1), e001290. https://doi.org/10.1136/fmch-2021-001290

Hosmer, D. W., Lemeshow, S., & Sturdivant, R. X. (2013). Applied logistic regression (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.

James, G., Witten, D., Tibshirani, R., & Hastie, T. (2013). An introduction to statistical learning: With applications in R. Springer.

Mengistu, A. K., Gedefaw, A. E., Baykemagn, N. D., Walle, A. D., Yehuala, T. Z., & Alemayehu, M. A. (2025). Predicting car accident severity in Northwest Ethiopia: A machine learning approach leveraging driver, environmental, and road conditions. Scientific Reports, 15, 21913. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-08005-2

Montgomery, D. C., Peck, E. A., & Vining, G. G. (2012). Introduction to linear regression analysis (5th ed.). John Wiley & Sons.

Moyo, E., Dzinavatonga, K., & Hakunavanhu, Z. L. (2025). Logistic regression modelling of road traffic accident severity: A study on driver characteristics in Zimbabwe. International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), 9(11). https://doi.org/10.47772/IJRISS.2025.91100254

Firdaus, A. M. A. I., & Lasmito, L. (2022). Analisa kecelakaan lalu lintas di Kabupaten Lamongan (Jalan Raya Gresik–Babat). DEARSIP: Journal of Architecture and Civil, 2(1), 18–26.

Organization, W. H. (2023). Report of the WHO and Religions for Peace global conference: strengthening national responses to health emergencies, October--December 2021. World Health Organization.

Shiran, G., Imaninasab, R., & Khayamim, R. (2021). Crash severity analysis of highways based on multinomial logistic regression model, decision tree techniques, and artificial neural network: A modeling comparison. Sustainability, 13(10), 5670. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13105670

Silvia, C., Wilandari, Y., & Hoyyi, A. (2015). Ketepatan klasifikasi tingkat keparahan korban kecelakaan lalu lintas menggunakan metode regresi logistik ordinal dan fuzzy k-nearest neighbor in every class. Jurnal Gaussian, 4(3), 441–451.

Badan Pusat Statistik. (2024). Statistik transportasi darat 2023. Badan Pusat Statistik.

Warpani, S. P. (2002). Pengelolaan lalu lintas dan angkutan jalan. Penerbit ITB.

Usman, T. (2016). Injury severity analysis : comparison of multilevel logistic regression models and effects of collision data aggregation. Journal of Modern Transportation, 24(1), 73–87. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40534-016-0096-4

Author Biographies

Kurnia Indah Wulandari, Universitas Islam Darul' Ulum Lamongan

Author Origin : Indonesia

Siti Alfiatur Rohmaniah, Universitas Islam Darul’ Ulum

Author Origin : Indonesia

Mohammad Syaiful Pradana, Universitas Islam Darul’ Ulum

Author Origin : Indonesia

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

How to Cite

Indah Wulandari, K., Alfiatur Rohmaniah, S., & Syaiful Pradana, M. (2026). Pemodelan Regresi Logistik Biner terhadap Tingkat Keparahan Kecelakaan Lalu Lintas di Kabupaten Lamongan. Mandalika Mathematics and Educations Journal, 8(2), 1201–1211. https://doi.org/10.29303/jm.v8i2.12121

Most read articles by the same author(s)

Similar Articles

> >> 

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.